1st Down - AFC Review

Wow was I wrong on some parts. Let's review after the first quarter of the season.


AFC East
1. New England (3-2) - Ok, who knew Tom Brady would only play for 8 seconds this season? Not only that, but the defense is aging faster than Amy Winehouse. Things looked somewhat promising after the bye, but this secondary looks atrocious. Cassell better find Moss or this team is looking at .500.
2. Buffalo (4-1) - This team has looked good, but the wins were vs bad teams like the Seahawks, Rams, and Raiders, with one quality win vs Jax'ville. This team was embarrassed by the Cardinals, have injuries to special teams and their QB. They need to heal fast or risk running away from the division.
3. New York Jets (3-2) - The Jets are a team without an identity but have a good chance to steal some games soon. With the Chiefs, Rams, Raiders coming up, this team could really find a groove before facing more division foes.
4. Miami (2-3) - Ronnie Brown for Comeback Player of the Year. Most people forgot that he was the leading rusher (and fantasy person) last year before his injury. Sure he wasnt hanging 5tds on the Pats, but he was getting it done. Surprisingly, this defense is playing lights out after letting go of Jason Taylor and Zach Thomas.


AFC South
1. Indianapolis (3-2) - After escaping the preseason, the Colts came out of the bye week slow and then pulled out the miracle at Houston, only to demolish the Ravens. The schedule heats up, but the team appears to be getting healthy at the right time.
2. Jacksonville (3-3) - Another team that is getting better as the games go along, but still very much hitting their stride. With a bye, and some warm up games vs Cincy, Clev, and Detroit, circle your calendars for a clash with the Titans in Week 11.
3. Houston (1-4) - Houston has buried themselves in the toughest division in football. 0-3 in the division means you are out of it. Not all is lost, this team could regroup to make that 8-8 range and build on Schaub, Slaton, and Johnson (sounds like a law firm).
4. Tennessee (5-0) - No one exactly saw this team as undefeated right? I see them finishing in the 11/12 win range with a return from Vince Young. They haven't exactly played the cream of the crop but this defense is tenacioius, temultuous, nasty, and smells a lot like Baltimore 2000.


AFC West
1. San Diego (3-3) - This team is one Hockele away from being 5-1. Two last second let downs changes the landscape of the West. However, this team is learning to win through the air and not depend on LT.
2a. Oakland (1-4) - My prediction was made during the Lane Kiffin era. Enough said.
2b. Denver (4-2) - This team has turned into the Colts of 04, high-flying offense, good young qb, and absolutely zero defense. Still has the potential to have the highest record without making the playoffs.
4. Kansas City (1-4) - Rebuilding. Rebuilding. Rebuilding. A win versus the Raiders and potential sweep of Broncos would be their super bowl.


AFC North
1. Pittsburgh (4-1) - This is the best team in a bad division. They just find a way to win. The system has been in place and keeps going. Things should get interesting if Fast Willie comes back for the home stretch.
2. Cleveland (2-3) - It's true. Their offense has life. Was KWinslow holding them back? Or did they catch the Giants napping? A lot of tough games in a row to test them...Wash, Jax, Baltimore, Den, Buff and then it gets tough with Colts and Titans back to back.
3. Baltimore (2-3) - You ever hear that you can't win with a rookie QB? That is true for this team and the defense knows it. At best, this guy is Trent Dilfer's backup.
4. Cincinnati (0-6) - firemarvinlewis.com is still as a domain name. Any takers?

Playoffs
San Diego, New England, Indy, Pittsburgh, WC - Jacksonville, Buffalo

NFL 2008 Projections - AFC Edition

The AFC is supposed to be the Varsity team versus the NFC which is JV. Since 1998, the NFC wins the Super Bowl once every five years. The Giants ushered in what should be the once in this set of five years, but I think it is time for a new streak to form. In the same manner that most NFC teams beat up on each other all year and lose the big game, it is time for the AFC to hit the wall. The teams are getting better and all of the 'cupcake' games are out of the window. Here is how I see the AFC shaking out this year, underperforming.


AFC East
1. New England - How is it that the team that nearly went undefeated last year gets the easiest schedule in the world out of the gate? Granted, most of the opponents are division foes, but then to get the NFC West? The Pats however will be shot down to reality this year amassing at best 11 wins. The defense is not only getting old, but getting worse. The only bright spot is Mayo, the rookie from Tennessee. Brady's foot "injury" wont be a problem.
2. Buffalo - The Bills take the next step. No, not the playoffs. They will compete in the East and miss out with a winning record. There are a lot of key components that are one year away for the Bills. Young receivers Hardy, Evans, Parrish, and Reid are still learning. Hardy will be a TD machine with his 6-6 frame and Evans showed he can stretch the field when healthy. QB Edwards has been banged up but will be fine as long as Lynch is in the backfield. Bills peak at 9 wins.
3. New York Jets - J-E-T-S, Jets Jets Jets are better. Sure they have Brett Favre. Sure the Offensive line is better. Sure they can win some games. They play 2 different style teams their first 5 games - Air it out in Seattle and Cardinals versus Smashmouth - Oakland, Jax, and Rams. They are in fight with Bills for 2nd place in the division. My nod goes to Bills, not the Mangenius.
4. Miami - Can you smell upset potential? I can. The Fins have two pro-bowl caliber backs once Ronnie Brown returns to form. That probably wont be until October and by then Ricky Williams will be hurt. Ted Ginn Jr takes the sophmore leap to becoming a potential deep threat and Chad Pennington guides this team to 6-10. Not bad after losing Jason Taylor.

AFC South
1. Indianapolis - Tricked ya. Still got the Colts on top. Peyton Manning's knee will be the focal point on this team for the first 3 weeks or so until he hits his stride. Marvin Harrison is back, Anthony Gonzalez is the new Brandon Stokely, and Reggis Wayne is Reggie Wayne. Don't expect the Colts to cruise as this is probably the 2nd best division in football with the NFC East. Bob Sanders makes an impact when he is on the field, but he wont make it more than 3 more years in the league with his style of play.
2. Jacksonville - Still second fiddle in the South, Jacksonville is no slouch but at the same time, no surprise. Jacksonville was one tragedy away from overtaking the Colts this year. With Peyton Manning nursing a gimpy leg, the Jags could capitalize off their pass rush and ball control offense were set to overtake the division crown that lives in Indy. Jaguars still need a big play WR to keep the defenses guessing.
3. Houston - The Texans are coming. The Texans are coming. They are this year's Titans. They could possibly sneak into the playoff mix with a healthy Schaub to Johnson combo. Super Mario Williams is a sack artist and is getting help on defense with Okoye and Ryans. The problem with this team despite no running back, is the health of Schaub and Johnson, more importantly Johnson.
4. Tennessee - Titans fall into the same trap as the New York Giants this year. You can have a solid team and still fall to last in your division at 8-8 or 7-9. The only problem that Tennessee has is an inability to put anyone outside the hash marks at WR. They drafted a trailblazer in Chris Johnson, but unless he is going to line up at flanker on 3rd down, its going to be hard to keep the defense off of Vince Young.

AFC West
1. San Diego - When your best players on both sides of the ball are playing with bum knees, its hard to pick them as the division winner right? Fortunately for the Chargers, it seems like they caught the entire division retooling. LT will be back to form, he has 2-3 more years of dominance before he pulls a Barry Sanders and walks away. Merriman is going to attempt to play on one leg in a position where he plays on pure speed. That is like Usain Bolt trying to run the 100m with a walking boot on his foot. Good luck Lights Out, but you are making a big gamble.
2a. Oakland - I like the running game. Not too many people talk about Justin Fargas, but it will be his running that will be why McFadden wins Rookie of the Year if he does. Fargas is actually listed as the pseudo starter, somewhat like Julius Jones in Dallas the last few years over Marion Barber. Fargas was actually the leading act at USC before the Reggie Bush show arrived. This running game will be aided greatly by a great defense and also anything Jamarcus Russell can do in play action.
2b. Denver - This team is tricky to figure out. They have two of the best corners in the game, a good young QB, a great young WR, and a running scheme that has caught on like the Plague. Two questions still remain: Why can't they stop the run? Who is going to run through those zone blocks? The Broncos play in the wrong division to not be good against the run.
4. Kansas City - The Chiefs are rebuilding. But they are on the fast track. Brodie Croyle to Bowe is going to be a hot connection. Larry Johnson is going to show he is not a one trick pony. A midseason trade to dump Tony Gonzalez to a contender will prove good since Gonzalez will probably only play 2-3 more years.

AFC North
1. Pittsburgh - Omar Epps really has this team turning the corner, but not moving to far away from Pittsburgh Steelers brand of football. Running game - check, big play WR - check, possession WR - check, great defense - check. Throw in Big Ben and the Steelers appear to be a lock in this position for years to come. This will hold especially true if Polumalu returns to form and Mendenhall shows he was no one year wonder.
2. Cleveland - Speaking of going in the wrong direction, the Browns will be shocked back to reality. A lot of exposure and even more games on television than the Pats, the Browns will almost live up to the hype after a brutal first couple of weeks. It is still to early to hand over the keys to Brady Quinn even though he beat up on the JV team of Wisconsin Wesleyan College in the preseason.
3. Baltimore - The Ravens might be getting older faster than we think. Ed Reed is questionable and Ray Lewis is coming off his worse season as a pro. The Ravens still are scary. Willis McGahee is the focal point with two young QB's handing off to him, and soon handing off to Ray Rice once Willis is hurt again. Still nothing special at WR, and the special teams is coming back around to championship form in Figurs. Will compete, but 7-9 is on its way.
4. Cincinnati - Barring any massive reconstructions, this Bengals team will struggle. Carson Palmer was beat up by the Saints in preseason. Chad ***** (Since he might have changed his name again by now like the WR formerly known as Chad or something stupid) has a bum shoulder and even bigger mouth. They cut there "franchise" running back and even more importantly, their best known offensive lineman. I hope Marvin Lewis is working on his resume to take over Notre Dame after Charlie Weis is fired for losing to Applachian State.

Playoffs
San Diego, New England, Indy, Pittsburgh, WC - Jacksonville, Buffalo